The season of opinion polls is here with us. It is also that time in the electioneering period when political formations unleash their power to not only influence public perception but also make moves that will sway the public sentiments to their favour. Big-name politicians will make moves and we are likely to see strategic timings of letting the public know of these movements. Political formations will strive to leverage on how and when the public gets to knew of such moves to create the perception of winning moves, crucial for rallying the undecided and consolidating the decided.
Kalonzo Musyoka and the entire OKA team are definitely poised to join Azimio la Umoja, and that galvanising momentum that will come with that is likely to change the shape and colouration of the campaign going forward.
The Sagana three and grassroots activations of Jubilee networks have all but confirmed that the more things change in Kenyan the more they remain the same. In 2007 President Uhuru Kenyatta as the Official Opposition leader gave President Kibaki’s PNU a major boost, and probably the clincher that he needed to win, by throwing his weight and the massive Kanu support behind Kibaki. Today, the president it at it again as Jubilee is poised to join Azimio in emphatic fashion by bringing on board several political parties in cooperation agreements. Suffice to say, any political candidate in Mt Kenya not in Jubilee will probably need to reimagine their position because, as they say politics is local, and the moment the direction in Mt Kenya takes the Jubilee shape, the national conversation might be different, but at the local level it will be difficult to survive against the party of a kingpin in the shape of a sitting president.
Suffice to say, after Sagana III, the galaxy of parties joining Azimio including the 2007 winning PNU and ODM and Jubilee’s NDC the opinion polls will definitely roll in again. The sentiments on the ground, especially in Mt Kenya, are still in favour of the Deputy President and one would say that probably Sagana III has emboldened his ardent supporters. However, the polls are likely to favour Azimio as the coalition of choice and certainly the gap between Baba and the Deputy President will probably be in favour of Baba.
Important to note as the campaign period hits fever pitch is the reality that communication and framing of messages will be critical. All actions by political players will be looked at against the backdrop of votes gained and damages caused if any. Clever political players strategise on how to build momentum, when to give information to the media and by extension the public and when to withhold information. Strategist are not hired to map out many rallies all over the country. No. Rallies are important, propaganda is key, but strategic swaying of popular public opinion is almost always the clincher and all these build ups seem to rallying issues, causes and voters around some consciousness.
Most of the leaders joining Azimio la Umoja are doing so because they strongly believe that the choice between the Deputy President and Baba is a no brainer. Listening to Governor Alfred Mutua during the Governor Ngilu and Prof Kibwana’s endorsement of Baba, one does not struggle to realise that he asked a question whose answer he gave. When Governor Ngilu stood to address the joint NDC she did not tip toe on the issue like the Machakos Governor. She was straight, candid and hard hitting. Maybe, just maybe, a campaign rallying call will emerge from the chronology of associates the DP has had who have strongly come out to say no to his quest for the presidency, the latest being the president who was candid, but still offered a differed olive branch to his deputy and a promise to support him in future. But that is beside the point. These leaders need to understand that their point has been made and Kenyans are more interested in what their choice of president will deliver. Clarity of what an Azimio la Umoja super alliance will do to take this country to the next level.
There is just so much that negative political advertising and populist statements can do. Most Kenyans vote on the basis of who their choice will give power and almost always they would not choose to give power to a candidate who does not belong. Loyal DP supporters are already sold to the hustler nation. For them giving power to any other candidate is like rejecting one of their own who belongs. Granted, if there are Kenya Kwanza or hustler nation supporters to be won to Azimio or Azimio supporters to be won over to the hustler nation or Kenya Kwanza, it will be on the basis of substantive agenda that speaks to the socioeconomic security of these supporters at individual level with promises of a viable change for the better.
The open secret today is that Azimio will soon be a super Alliance and the final jigsaw that will unleash an unstoppable juggernaut was the entry of Jubilee after their NDC and Kalonzo and his team joining. Conversations and the strategy by Azimio will then shift to winning the undecided and the many Kenyans who had bought into the hustler narrative. For Kenya Kwanza, the drive will be to consolidate the hustler nation believers all over the country. At the national level, Kenya Kwanza is not as big as what the hustler nation was and the hustlers in different parts of the country will need serious articulation of the Kenya Kwanza agenda for them to reject the luminaries around the Azimio la Umaja who will be supporting Baba. It will be a political odyssey to take on the Azimio la Umoja with the galaxy of governors behind it, Raila Odinga and President Uhuru Kenyatta. What will make it even herculean for Deputy President and his top principals like Musalia Mudavadi and Hon Rigathi Gachagua is the reality that convincing hustlers in the region where Azimio Luminaries hail from will take more than going to these regions and disparaging the leaders in these areas for their choice of Baba. Most hustlers and mama mbogas and watu wa boda boda in Ukambani, for instance, will find it hard to reject Kalonzo Musyoka in Azimio and voting Kenya Kwanza if Kalonzo is in Azimio will be like giving the power to the other who does not mean well for their political kingpin. Therefore, we are moving into this bright space where issues will drive the political discourse and campaigns. Just like Raila Odinga will now have to convince Mt Kenya why he is the best bet.
The same is the case for Azimio. Because, most leaders throwing their weight behind Baba will not be on the ballot, reaching their support base with political rhetoric that attacks the DP with the kind of talk we have seen will only do so much. These are folks, especially in Mt Kenya and maybe Eastern and the Coastal region who will need a lot of incentive to come out and vote. This incentive will not be the DP or the Azimio wave, but the substantive agenda as captured in Azimio’s ten-point agenda. Luminaries in Azimio will have to rise beyond the opinion polls that will soon be showing Baba closing in to articulating how substantive issues because it will not be an easy race.
The author is a PhD Candidate in Media Studies and Political communication.
