FRANKFURT, Germany, June 16 – The German economy is set to shrink in 2023 after a weak start to the year and as consumers continue to rein in spending because of stubbornly high inflation, Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel said Friday.
Europe’s largest economy is projected to contract by 0.3 percent in 2023, according to the central bank’s newest forecasts.
Back in December, the Bundesbank was still expecting a 0.5-percent contraction, but it said falling energy prices had slightly improved the outlook.
“The German economy is still struggling with the consequences of high inflation. This is reducing citizens’ purchasing power,” Nagel said in a statement accompanying the forecasts.
Germany unexpectedly slipped into a mild recession in the final months of 2022 and the start of 2023, as the energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and higher interest rates took their toll on companies and households.
Although the economy was “slowly regaining its footing” after the winter slump, it will take until 2024 and 2025 for the recovery to really gain momentum, Nagel said.
German gross domestic product is seen growing by 1.2 percent in 2024, and 1.3 percent the following year, boosted by “declining inflation, strongly rising wages and a robust labour market”.
For this year the Bundesbank expects inflation to reach six percent, down from a previous estimate of 7.2 percent, “due to energy price developments”.
“We are seeing a welcome decline in inflation, but we’re still far from giving the all-clear signal,” Nagel said.
The warning comes a day after the European Central Bank raised interest rates by a further 0.25 percentage points, and signalled another hike to come in July.
ECB president Christine Lagarde cautioned that although inflation has been coming down, higher wages and corporate profits risked adding to price pressures — concerns echoed by Nagel.
“Decisive monetary policy action is key to counteracting the economic and societal risks of more persistent inflation,” he said.
