NAIROBI,Kenya Oct 25 – President William Ruto leads the 2027 presidential race with 26 per cent support, ahead of Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, who has emerged as his closest challenger with 25 per cent, according to a new national opinion poll by Research 8020 Limited.
The October 2026 report places Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka third with 11 per cent, followed by former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i at nine per cent and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua at seven per cent.
The findings point to a competitive presidential contest, with Ruto holding a narrow one-point lead over Sifuna, while the opposition vote remains spread among several potential candidates.
Five per cent of respondents were undecided, while other presidential candidates collectively accounted for 69 per cent of responses, according to the poll.
The survey suggests that although Ruto remains the leading individual candidate, he has yet to command majority support among voters surveyed. The report notes that 74 per cent of respondents were not choosing him, highlighting the potential significance of opposition unity ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Sifuna’s position as the leading opposition contender comes against a backdrop of growing public dissatisfaction with the country’s direction and concerns over the cost of living, unemployment, corruption and taxation.
The poll found that 57 per cent of respondents believed Kenya was headed in the wrong direction, compared with 23 per cent who said the country was moving in the right direction. Another 20 per cent said it was neither heading in the right nor wrong direction.
The report calculated a net direction score of minus 31 percentage points, describing the prevailing national mood as negative.
The cost of living emerged as the leading concern, cited by 65 per cent of respondents, followed by unemployment at 58 per cent and corruption at 43 per cent. High taxation and insecurity or crime were each cited by 31 per cent, while 28 per cent identified bad leadership as a major challenge.
These concerns could shape the campaign agenda as politicians position themselves ahead of the election, with the poll suggesting that candidates offering credible solutions to economic and governance challenges could gain an advantage.
On voter participation, 93 per cent of respondents said they intended to vote in the 2027 General Election, while seven per cent said they did not plan to participate.
The report projects an electorate of more than 20 million voters in 2027, although it does not provide a separate registration count in the findings.
The survey also found a fragmented political party landscape, with Linda Mwananchi attracting 25 per cent affiliation and the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) recording 23 per cent.
The Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) registered nine per cent, while Wiper and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) each attracted eight per cent. Jubilee recorded seven per cent, while 16 per cent of respondents said they were yet to decide on their party affiliation.
The report says the figures reflect a competitive political environment in which no party has established a dominant position and undecided voters could influence the eventual outcome.
Regional findings show distinct areas of support for the leading presidential contenders.
Ruto recorded his strongest support in Bomet, at 68.3 per cent, followed by Mandera at 64.1 per cent, Elgeyo-Marakwet at 61.9 per cent and Nandi at 60.8 per cent. He also polled 56.3 per cent in Uasin Gishu and 50 per cent in Garissa.
Sifuna’s strongest showing was in Vihiga, where he attracted 60.7 per cent, followed by Bungoma at 53.8 per cent, Trans Nzoia at 42.7 per cent and Kakamega at 42.2 per cent. In Nairobi, he polled 33.3 per cent.
Kalonzo’s support was concentrated in Ukambani, where he recorded 39.5 per cent in Machakos, 33.7 per cent in Kitui and 25.8 per cent in Makueni.
Matiang’i performed strongest in Kisii, with 28.6 per cent, and Nyamira, with 23.3 per cent. Gachagua’s support was concentrated in the Mount Kenya region, where he polled 32.3 per cent in Kirinyaga, 28.6 per cent in Murang’a, 24.2 per cent in Nyeri and 23.8 per cent in Nyandarua.
The regional figures underscore the challenge facing the opposition as it seeks to build a national coalition capable of competing with the incumbent. While individual contenders have established strongholds, the findings suggest that support remains geographically distributed.
Research 8020 Limited said the poll was conducted in September 2026 through computer-assisted telephone interviews involving 3,760 Kenyan residents aged 18 and above across all 47 counties.
The company reported a margin of error of plus or minus 1.60 percentage points at a 95 per cent confidence level and said it fully funded the research.
