The five pillars that carried President William Ruto to State House in 2022 appear, at least on the surface, to have collapsed.
The narrative of a persecuted outsider fighting a dynastic elite uncomfortable with the rise of the son of a peasant. The Church. The Hustler movement. Mt Kenya. And the international community.
Together, they formed the coalition that propelled Ruto to victory. Today, critics argue that little remains.
The outsider-victim narrative cannot survive incumbency. Ruto is now in charge. The Church that embraced his rise now frequently rebukes his administration. The Hustler base that chanted his name feels the weight of taxes and the cost of living. Mt Kenya, which delivered a substantial share of his votes, has become increasingly hostile following the impeachment of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
What his critics interpret as political collapse may instead be political consolidation. Some of these ruptures may not be accidents, but the consequence of moving from winning power to exercising it.
The fundamental error is assuming that the pillars that delivered victory in 2022 were meant to remain permanent. They were instruments for winning an election. Governing requires different foundations.
Consider the choices Ruto has made since taking office.
He inherited an economy facing heavy debt obligations and an expensive subsidy regime. The easier political route would have been to preserve subsidies, borrow more and postpone difficult decisions.
Instead, his administration removed fuel and food subsidies and embarked on broader fiscal reforms.
The Housing Levy, enhanced NSSF contributions, changes in taxation and efforts to rationalise public spending have all carried political costs. They have particularly tested the patience of the Hustler constituency that formed the emotional core of his 2022 campaign.
Yet Ruto’s political calculation appears clear: endure the anger today in the belief that the benefits will become visible tomorrow.
Subsidies offer immediate relief, but they can consume enormous public resources without building lasting assets. Ruto’s administration is betting instead on housing, savings, employment and infrastructure as longer-term pillars of economic security.
The theory is that a fundi employed on a housing project, a young worker building retirement savings, or a family accessing an affordable home will eventually have something more tangible than a temporary subsidy.
That is difficult to sell when households are struggling.
Yet the prominence of empowerment drives across the country is a reminder that long-term reform must still speak to the immediate realities of Kenyans at the bottom of the economic pyramid.
The fallout with the Church has also created a more independent relationship with power.
The current tension has created a different dynamic, with religious leaders speaking more openly and sometimes sharply to power.
Then there is Mt Kenya.
Ruto’s conflict with Gachagua has exposed a deeper disagreement over political representation and regional entitlement.
Ruto’s supporters argue that he has rejected the notion that any region can claim ownership of the presidency. His critics see the fallout as evidence of betrayal.
The battle for Mt Kenya will therefore be decided not simply by rhetoric but by a contest between development, economic performance and ethnic mobilisation.
Ruto is betting that roads, markets, housing and other projects will eventually speak louder than political grievance.
The international pillar has evolved as well.
Ruto’s foreign policy on climate, peace and regional security has also strengthened his international profile, even where domestic opinion has been less enthusiastic.
As the next election approaches, Ruto will need voters to move beyond the emotional coalition of 2022.
In 2022, Hustler was an emotion. In 2027, Ruto wants it to become an economic proposition: savings, a house with an ownership pathway, a market with a roof, infrastructure reaching regions that previously felt forgotten, and opportunities for young people.
That is the gamble. That is his wager for 2027.
Presidents who attempt to preserve every alliance that brought them to power can become prisoners of those alliances. Ruto appears to have chosen a different path.
By 2027, his opponents will speak about betrayal, broken promises and economic pain. Ruto will seek to point to houses, roads, markets, savings, jobs and a stronger fiscal foundation.
His argument will be simple: difficult decisions were necessary.
His opponents will ask an equally important question: have ordinary Kenyans actually benefited?
That is where the election will ultimately be decided.
The five pillars of 2022 may indeed have weakened or collapsed. But the more important question is what Ruto has built in their place.
He is betting that when Kenyans return to the ballot, they will judge him not only by who stood beside him in 2022, but by what stands because of his presidency in 2027.
The road that finally reached a village. The market that finally has a roof. The home a family can aspire to own. The savings a worker never imagined accumulating. The opportunity created for a young person.
Ruto’s survival, and perhaps his re-election, may depend on whether those promises become visible enough to outweigh the anger that accompanied the journey.
That is the real test of his presidency.
