NAIROBI, Kenya, Nov 7 – The Kenyan economy is projected to grow by six percent in 2024, according to the NCBA Economic Forum.
Expected growth will be boosted by a rebound in the agriculture and service sectors.
The high cost of living, however, will negatively impact households.
“We have seen the government roll out significant fiscal adjustments with an outlined multi-step fiscal consolidation path anchored at a target deficit of 3% of GDP and a medium-term revenue strategy necessary to achieve long-term growth,” NCBA Bank Group Managing Director John Gachora said during the releasing of the 2024 Macroeconomic Outlook: Divergence Across Economies and Sectors’ report.
“With these “growth positive” adjustments, we now expect GDP to grow at 4.9% in 2023 and maintain an upward trend into 2024. Overall, therefore, we, remain quite optimistic on 2024 prospects,” added Gachora.
Agricultural output is expected to expand by about five percent, with agri-export flows (including coffee, tea, and horticultural crops) expected to remain within their long-term average trend performance.
The manufacturing sector could remain weak at an annual growth rate of 2.6 percent given the sustained household budgetary strain, while the overall infrastructure spend by both the government and private sector will see a low growth rate of four percent in the construction sector.
“Despite the global uncertainties, Kenya’s growth has remained strong and is expected to remain above the global and SSA averages in 2023 and 2024, pointing to the resilience and diversified nature of the economy,” Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) Deputy Governor Susan Koech said.
“The economy grew by 4.8 percent in 2022, well above the sub-Saharan Africa region average growth of 4.0 percent and the global average of 3.5 percent. The CBK expects the economy to grow by 5.5 percent in 2023 and close to 6.0 percent in 2024.”
The GDP in Tanzania, Uganda, and Rwanda is expected to grow by 6.1 percent, 5.7 percent, and 7 percent, respectively.
“For Kenyan enterprises with operations in the greater EAC markets, the strong economic performance across the East Africa markets should be good news for potential 2024 outcomes,” Gachora added.
“More specifically for Kenya, though we expect the projected growth to come with pronounced divergence across the different economic sectors, We expect the services sector to register good performance in 2024,” he continued.
“However, broad economic strain could see some pockets of the sector grow below their pre-COVID levels.”
