BEIJING, China, Jan 21 – China’s economy is on track for solid growth in the first quarter after registering a full-year growth of 5.2 percent in 2023, with economic momentum set to further strengthen in the second half, said a senior economist.
“Favorable conditions have set the stage for the Chinese economy to start the year off on a firm footing,” said Wang Yiming, vice-chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges and former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council.
A tranche of special treasury bonds worth 1 trillion yuan ($139 billion), approved in October, will drive project investments in the first quarter, Wang said in an exclusive interview with China Daily.
Consumption is also expected to spur economic growth in the first quarter, thanks to the repricing of outstanding mortgages for first-time homebuyers that has boosted household incomes, alongside the seasonal surge in consumer spending around Spring Festival, Wang said.
Wang added that these positive factors will help offset the impact of an unfavorable comparison base for first-quarter GDP growth as economic activity sharply rebounded from COVID-19 in the first quarter of 2023.
Economic growth is expected to further accelerate in the latter half of the year from the first half, Wang said, adding that consumption may constitute about 70 percent of GDP growth this year, down from 82.5 percent in 2023, as investment activity and net exports pick up and contribute more to growth.
He made the remarks after the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday that China’s GDP reached 126.06 trillion yuan in 2023, expanding by 5.2 percent year-on-year in real terms, up from 3 percent in 2022.
Wang attributed the 5.2 percent growth to policy support, recovering consumption, brightening expectations and a low comparison base. Though China’s economy faces a less favorable comparison base this year, Wang said that multiple economic drivers are gathering momentum, laying the foundation for China to maintain GDP growth of about 5 percent this year.
