The latest TIFA Research poll showing President William Ruto leading the 2027 presidential preference race with 24 per cent support may look encouraging to the opposition. On the surface, it suggests that a majority of voters are leaning toward other possible candidates, including Kalonzo Musyoka, Fred Matiang’i, Edwin Sifuna, Rigathi Gachagua and Babu Owino.
But the opposition should not celebrate too early.
Kenyan elections are not won by adding up scattered support across different candidates and assuming it will automatically translate into victory. Elections are won through unity, organisation, messaging, regional mobilisation and a clear presidential candidate around whom public dissatisfaction can crystallise.
The TIFA poll does not show a defeated incumbent. It shows a vulnerable incumbent facing a fragmented opposition. That distinction is critical.
President Ruto’s 24 per cent may appear modest for a sitting president seeking re-election, but he remains the single most preferred candidate. In a divided field, that matters. A candidate with a solid and organised base can still win if the opposing side remains split across several camps.
Kalonzo follows at 19 per cent, Matiang’i at 14 per cent, Sifuna at 10 per cent, Gachagua at 9 per cent, and Babu Owino at 2 per cent. Collectively, these numbers suggest the anti-Ruto vote is larger than Ruto’s current support. But unless these leaders rally behind one candidate, those numbers remain politically deceptive.
The opposition must remember one of the oldest lessons in Kenyan politics: division is the incumbent’s greatest asset.
In 1992, opposition disunity allowed President Daniel arap Moi to retain power with only about a third of the vote. The country had a strong anti-incumbent mood, but that anger was divided among several opposition candidates. The result was predictable. Fragmentation handed the incumbent victory.
The same risk is now staring the opposition in the face ahead of 2027.
Ruto does not need overwhelming national support if his challengers remain divided. He only needs to hold his base, keep his machinery disciplined and watch his opponents split the protest vote among themselves. If Kalonzo, Matiang’i, Sifuna, Gachagua and others each insist on carrying their own ambitions to the ballot, they may end up doing the President’s work for him.
The 15 per cent of undecided voters also makes the race highly fluid. These voters are not likely to rally behind confusion. They will be looking for clarity, confidence and a credible alternative. A divided opposition sends the wrong message. It tells voters that those asking to take power have not even agreed on who should lead them.
The opposition should also avoid assuming that public anger over the cost of living, taxation, unemployment, corruption, abductions or police excesses will automatically translate into votes against Ruto. Anger alone does not win elections. Organisation does. Hope does. A clear alternative does.
Many Kenyans may be dissatisfied with the current administration, but they still want to know what comes next. Who is the alternative? What is the economic plan? How will the next government reduce the cost of living? What will it do differently on jobs, public debt, education, healthcare and corruption?
Without a clear candidate and a coherent agenda, the opposition risks becoming a protest movement rather than a government-in-waiting.
The poll also confirms that regional and ethnic political influence remains strong. Kalonzo remains dominant among Kamba respondents, Matiang’i among Kisii respondents, Ruto among Kalenjin respondents and Gachagua among Kikuyu respondents. This means the opposition cannot simply rely on national frustration. It must build a serious coalition that converts regional strength into national momentum.
The rise of DCP and the decline in support for traditional dominant parties such as ODM and UDA also point to a restless electorate. Voters are shifting. Political loyalties are no longer as fixed as they once were. But this fluidity can either help or hurt the opposition. If opposition leaders spend the next year fighting over seniority, entitlement and regional bargaining, they will squander the moment. If they unite early, they could transform discontent into a credible national challenge.
The ODM split captured in the poll should also concern opposition strategists. With 73 per cent of ODM supporters backing the Sifuna-linked “Linda Mwananchi” faction against 24 per cent for the Oburu-linked “Linda Ground” camp, the message is clear: many opposition supporters want a firmer, more independent and people-centred opposition posture. They do not want ambiguity. They do not want one foot in government and another in opposition. They want clarity.
That clarity must extend to the presidential contest.
The opposition must decide whether it wants to defeat Ruto or merely negotiate around him. A serious campaign requires sacrifice. Some leaders will have to step back. Others will have to accept running mate or coalition roles. All must rally around one ticket capable of attracting broad national support.
Kalonzo has experience. Matiang’i has technocratic appeal. Sifuna energises younger voters. Gachagua brings Mt Kenya mobilisation. Babu Owino speaks to a section of urban youth. Each has a constituency. But none can win alone. Their individual strengths only become politically powerful if fused into one national project.
Ruto’s 24 per cent should not make the opposition comfortable. It should alarm them. It shows a President who is beatable, but not beaten. It shows an opposition with numbers, but not yet a winning formation.
If the opposition fails to unite behind one candidate, it will have no one to blame in 2027.
Not the pollsters. Not the electoral commission. Not voter apathy.
It will have defeated itself.
Elijah Mwangi is a scholar based in Nairobi; he comments on local and global matters.
